The stage is set for an epic showdown as the #7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish take on former independent rival, the #6 Penn State Nittany Lions, on January 9 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET on ESPN, where both teams will look to overcome key injuries and continue their surge in the College Football Playoffs. With Notre Dame favored by two points, this Orange Bowl clash promises a thrilling contest between two programs hungry for a shot at college football glory.
Injury Report
Notre Dame
DB Chance Tucker (ACL), RB Gi’Bran Payne (ACL), OL Ashton Craig (knee), DL Jordan Botelho (knee), DL Boubacar Traore (ACL), DB Ben Morrison (hip), WR KK Smith (collarbone, DL Rylie Mills (knee) and TE Cooper Flannigan are all out for the season. DB Jaden Mickey will miss the remainder of the season (transfer portal).
Penn State
LB Abdul Carter is questionable (arm).
Notre Dame Betting Trends
- Notre Dame is 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Notre Dame is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games versus a Big Ten opponent.
- Penn State is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
- Penn State is 1-7 ATS when playing as an underdog.
- Matchup history between these two teams is tied at 9-9-1
Betting Line (Point Spread) and Total (Over / Under)
#7 Notre Dame -2 (13-1) (12-2 ATS) at #6 Penn State (13-2) (8-7)
Legendary Notre Dame head coach Lou Holtz once said, “You’re never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you’re never as bad as they say when you lose.” That type of mindset was something this year’s team forgot about following its week-one dismantling of Texas A&M as the Irish fell to lowly Northern Illinois the following week, 16-14. The pain from that costly mistake was remembered by the team following its home playoff win against Indiana, and it showed as Notre Dame subsequently defeated the Georgia Bulldogs in round two of the playoffs, 23-10.
The lesson learned from that week-two blunder in September shaped the culture of this current Irish team. Blocking out the noise was key to making it this far in the college football playoffs, and it’ll be even more pivotal this week following last week’s victory over the SEC champions.
“Yeah, it’s probably louder this week than it’s ever been,” Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman said of the hype surrounding his team. “I think it’s human nature to enjoy people saying good things about you. It’s human nature, but we’ve talked all year about being misfits, and that’s what we have to continue to be. You have to make the choice to either waste time listening to people tell you how good you are and what the past has been, or you’re going to put your time into preparing for this opportunity right in front of us.
“That’s been my message loud and clear, and we all have to make that choice,” Freeman continued. “It’s not the initial thought of daydreaming about the past or an uncertain future. It’s the second thought that as soon as you start thinking about the past or what somebody’s saying about you or the uncertain future, get back in the moment and put the work in that it takes to get the outcome you want. Like, don’t dream about the outcome. Put the work in. The minute you start dreaming about the outcome, put the work in that it takes to get that. And that’s a personal challenge for everybody in our program.”
To move forward in the playoffs, the Irish will first have to get past the Penn State Nittany Lions, who will be entering this game with a ton of confidence after defeating Boise State in last week’s Fiesta Bowl, 31-14. Penn State was led by its stingy defense as they limited the Broncos’ All-American running back Ashton Jeanty to 104 yards on 30 carries (3.5 YPC), including one lost fumble. The Nittany Lions defense also snagged three interceptions from Boise State quarterback Maddux Madesen.
While containing Jeanty is a commendable feat, the Penn State defense will face a much more challenging task in the Orange Bowl as the Notre Dame offense will offer a three-headed monster in quarterback Riley Leonard and running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Against Georgia, the three of them combined for 136 yards on 30 carries (4.5 YPC). Leonard also added 90 yards through the air, including a touchdown. The most important stat of them all was zero turnovers, and although 90 yards passing does not seem like much, it did come via seven different receivers. The variety of ways that Notre Dame’s offense can spread out a defense is what makes defending it so difficult. It is not so much the number of big plays and yardages as it is the timing at which they arrive. Simply put, it is quality over quantity in big moments.
The same can be said for the Notre Dame defense, as the quality of play seems to appear at the most opportune time. During Georgia’s second drive of the game, the Irish defense walked away with a fumble recovery as Irish defensive back Adon Shuler spearheaded the ball away from Georgia running back Trevor Etienne after the Bulldogs had taken the ball 71 yards to the Notre Dame 10-yard line. Another pivotal play came just before halftime as defensive lineman RJ Oben strip-sacked Bulldogs’ quarterback Gunner Stockton, and edge rusher Junior Tuihalamaka recovered the fumble, which led to Notre Dame’s lone offensive touchdown of the game.
The urgency of remaining focused in big moments is something coach Freeman has preached all season long. It is also the motto he will reiterate to his team heading into the Orange Bowl, the program’s sixth appearance in the prestigious bowl.
“It’s stay in the moment and win the moment,” Freeman said of this week’s team motto. “You can’t win the moment if you’re not in the moment, and that is more important than anything. Yeah, we want team glory. Yeah, it’s one day, one life. It’s one play, one life. It’s one game. It’s all those different things, but understand most importantly to stay in the moment, win the moment, and the only way to win the moment is to be in the moment and that’s what is important.”
Winning the moment is something Notre Dame has accomplished this season. This year’s Notre Dame team is the first team to beat an AP-ranked opponent in six different months in the same season. That type of success in big moments is likely why the Irish enter this week’s showdown against Penn State as two-point favorites (total 45.5). That type of success doesn’t happen overnight. It comes with the grind. It comes with the highs and the lows. It comes through handling adversity.
“I’ve said this before, but culture is revealed in tough moments,” Freeman stated. “I met with the captains last night (Friday) about the plan for this week, and I couldn’t even get it out of my mouth before they said, ‘Coach, we have to move forward. We have to move forward. If we didn’t listen to this noise before now, why are we changing?’ So, they’re taking the things I’ve said. Now, it’s just a strong belief, and they are truly an extension of me in that locker room. And it’s great when you have players leading your program.”
As if losing to Northern Illinois was not enough, this Notre Dame team also lost two All-Americans for the season and an infirmary room filled with other starters and reserves alike. The road to the national title game kept getting more dim as the season progressed, yet the Irish kept moving forward. Penn State faced that kind of pressure twice this season, and the Nittany Lions burst twice in both situations against Ohio State and Oregon. This Notre Dame team doesn’t seem to take no for an answer.
Pick: Notre Dame
