It’s game day. Notre Dame and Penn State square off in just a few hours, with the winner moving on to the national championship. Let’s dive into the factors that have Notre Dame fans on edge heading into the matchup with Penn State—starting with Jeremiyah Love’s health and the ominous “body blow effect” left over from the Georgia game. And let’s also look at what gives the Irish confidence, including a special teams unit that has become a genuine weapon and a defense capable of containing Penn State’s potent offense. Will it be enough for the Irish to advance?
What Worries Me This Week
Jeremiyah Love’s health
Marcus Freeman said Love is good to go and that the staff was smart with his workload this week, but ever since seeing the videos of him fiddling with that knee brace from practice over the weekend, I’ve been nervous. Jadarian Price is a damn good running back who would start on 90% of the teams in the country, but Love has the ability to change a game every time he touches the ball, similarly to how Rocket Ismail used to. His 98-yard run against Indiana changed the game completely.
Now, maybe the brace is more of an annoyance than a hindrance to Love, but I would feel much better about this game if Notre Dame had a 100% Jeremiyah Love. Penn State fans are probably saying the same about their star edge rusher, Abdul Carter. Carter is a game-time decision, so everyone’s banged up right now. That doesn’t change that I’d feel better if Love were 100%.
Notre Dame getting stuck in third and long again
Aside from concerns about Love’s health, Notre Dame cannot get stuck in as many thirds and longs as they did against Georgia. In addition to the running game being slowed down, the Irish committed far too many mental errors and mistakes that dug themselves a hole. Penn State’s defense is not as good as Georgia’s, but it’s still very good. If Notre Dame has negative plays on early downs and falls behind the down and distance, Penn State will unleash its pass rush, and points will be at a premium from the offense again.
The body blow effect of the Georgia game
Notre Dame has played two challenging, physical football games in the playoffs. Penn State has had two pillow fights. Notre Dame is working on 7 days rest, Penn State on 9. That’s a significant edge for the Nittany Lions in this one. Playing a knockdown, drag-out fight like last week’s Sugar Bowl against a team like Georgia can linger. Think of how almost every team this year didn’t cover the spread in their next game after Notre Dame. Everyone is banged up, but the injuries have mounted for Notre Dame. The Irish will come out fired up and ready to play – that I do not worry about. It’s how the Irish hold up in the second half in yet another physical football game.
The reverse side of this is how Penn State will respond since this will be their first physical contest since mid-November. SMU and Boise State weren’t overly physical teams like what Notre Dame poses for the Lions. Still, the cumulative body-blow effect worries me.
What Doesn’t Worry Me This Week
Notre Dame special teams
Marty Biagi’s bag is deep. His first year as special teams coach got off to a rough start as he had massive shoes to fill from Brian Mason. Year two, however, has been a revelation, with the Irish special teams being a strength and delivering big plays consistently. That was especially true in the Sugar Bowl when Jayden Harrison took the second-half kickoff to the house for a 98-yard touchdown and really put the game out of reach for a struggling Georgia offense.
There was a rough start to the game, pun intended, with the back-to-back running into the kicker penalties on Bryce Young, but the unit responded, and I expect Notre Dame’s special teams unit to be a factor again tonight. Penn State has had struggles with its special teams, while Biagi took home the Special Teams Coach of the Year award. The difference could come from special teams in a game that will likely be decided in the margins. If it does, Notre Dame has the edge.
Riley Leonard’s running
Leonard ran the ball for 80 yards on 14 carries against Georgia and will likely need a repeat of that performance tonight for Notre Dame to advance to the championship game. When Notre Dame has faced tough defenses this year, OC Mike Denbrock leaned on Leaonard’s legs. He had 62 yards against Texas A&M, 52 against Louisville, and 50 against Georgia Tech. Leonard could take advantage of the RPO game if Abdul Carter is out tonight tonight. Either way, look for Leonard to run a lot on both designed run and scrambled.
Notre Dame’s defense containing Penn State
Penn State has a pair of 1,000 running backs, an NFL quarterback, and maybe the best tight end in the country in Tyler Warren. I still have faith in Al Golden’s defense containing the Nittany Lions. They won’t shut them down the way they did Georgia, but I would be surprised if Penn State could dictate what they wanted to do. Allar has sometimes struggled with pressure this year and has often turned the ball over in their two losses (Oregon, Ohio State) and their other two close calls (USC, Minnesota).
Players to Watch
- Kris Mitchell – Every other transfer had their moment last week. Maybe this week, they will give Mitchell a chance on a deep route. Notre Dame will have to take chances downfield tonight – why not to Mitchell?
- Mitchell Evans – Notre Dame could use more out of the tight end position right now. Evans had a nice surge at the end of the season, but he’s been quiet in the playoffs.
- Adon Shuler – He’s always been around the football over the entire second half of the season. Shuler will be a big part of the equation in slowing down Warren.
- Tyler Buchner – Marty Biagi has something in his big bag of trick plays, and Buchner has been at the heart of most of them this year.
- Bryce Young – He had a rough Sugar Bowl. Something tells me he steps up big tonight.
- Mitch Jeter – He’s looked like his old self in the playoffs. Notre Dame needs that form to hold again tonight.
Prediction Time
I have been on a personal rollercoaster on this game since I knew the Irish would face Penn State. From “How will we stop Tyler Warren?” to “Notre Dame is going to run on these guys like Oregon did.” This game feels a lot like the Georgia game, where the only outcome that would shock me would be Notre Dame getting blown out – everything else feels on the table to me. In the end, I think Notre Dame is the more physical team, and their experience against Georgia helps them, while it takes Penn State a little while to adjust after playing two games against teams that aren’t overly physical.
Notre Dame 28, Penn State 23
