We knew Notre Dame would be the underdog against whoever won last night’s Cotton Bowl between Ohio State and Texas. We now know just how big of an underdog Notre Dame is, and it’s a big one. The Buckeyes opened up as a 9.5-point favorite over the Irish in next Monday’s championship tilt with the Fighting Irish. It will be just the second time this year that the Irish are underdogs at kickoff all season long.
Notre Dame opened as a favorite against Penn State in the Orange Bowl but was the underdog by kickoff. The point spread swung three points in the final hours before kickoff, taking the Irish from a 1.5-point favorite to a 1.5-point underdog at kickoff. As we all know, the Irish not only covered but won outright. They would have covered the original spread of -1.5, too.
The moneyline on Notre Dame currently sits at +300. For those unfamiliar with betting, that means that a bet on Notre Dame to win outright would be 3x the bet placed.
Opening as this large of a dog is obviously not ideal. It’s rate for Vegas to be off with their spreads by 10 or more points, but it would not be unprecedented even for this season. This year, Ohio State lost its regular season finale against Michigan as a -20.5 point favorite. On the reverse, we saw the Irish lose as a heavy favorite against Northern Illinois.
It would not be unprecedented in National Championship game history if the Irish won as a 9.5-point underdog. In 2001, Oklahoma was an 11.5-point underdog to Florida State. The similarities between the Sooners and the Irish don’t end there.
Bob Stoops was a first-time head coach for a program that had fallen from its perch as one of college football’s elite. Following Barry Switzer’s run at Oklahoma, the Sooner program fell off sharply prior to Stoops taking over. In his second season at the helm, he guided Oklahoma to an upset win in the Orange Bowl to win the national championship.
Marcus Freeman is in his third season, not his second, but like Stoops, he was an up-and-coming defensive coordinator before getting his first head coaching opportunity at one of college football’s blue-blood programs. Stoops was 40 at the time. Freeman just turned 39 on Friday—just in case James Franklin still cared about his age after the Irish beat him on Thursday.
Two years after Oklahoma won a national championship as an 11.5 underdog, the Ohio State Buckeyes themselves won a title as 11.5 underdogs to what was thought to be a juggernaut Miami Hurricanes team.
Freeman gets his third crack at his alma mater in as many seasons as the head coach of the Irish. We all know how the first two went. This time around, the Irish are the biggest underdogs they’ve been against the Buckeyes, even though this Irish team has proven to be leaps and bounds stronger than the previous two under Freeman’s guidance.
Notre Dame has been one of the best teams in the country this season against the spread. Since the loss to Northern Illinois, the only game in which the Irish did not cover the spread was their win over Miami, Ohio. The Irish have won all of those contests outright as well.
Good teams win. Great teams cover. Ohio State is on a run of its own, but betting against the Irish right now doesn’t seem like a winning strategy.
