First Quarter Will be Crucial for Notre Dame in the Natty

There are a lot of keys to the game for Notre Dame tomorrow for the Irish to pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets in National Championship game history, but none might be more crucial than surviving the first quarter against a high-powered Buckeye offense capable of jumping all of its opponents. Notre Dame is not a team built to dig itself out of huge holes – that’s why 10 points felt like a lot in the Orange Bowl. For the Irish to have a shot tomorrow, they can’t let the Buckeyes get off to a fast start.

The Buckeyes have been dominant in the first quarter in Ohio State’s three wins in the playoffs. They hold a 42-0 scoring mark in the first 15 minutes of the game. Against Tennessee, Ohio State jumped to a 21-0 lead. Oregon fared slightly better at 14-0 before their doors were blown off in the second quarter. Texas played the Buckeyes the closest in the first quarter at just a 7-0 deficit, and the Longhorns are the only team in the playoffs to give them a tight contest.

By contrast, Ohio State held just a 3-0 lead over Michigan after the first quarter before falling 13-10 to the Wolverines at home as 20.5-point favorites. They also led by just one point on the road against Oregon in the regular season before losing a narrow contest. So, it seems relatively straightforward: Keep Ohio State from jumping out to a big lead, and the Irish will have a chance. It might sound simple, but given the firepower the Buckeyes possess, it will be easier said than done.

Notre Dame is almost the opposite of Ohio State in the first quarter. The Irish have played it close and tight in every first quarter in the playoffs. Like the Buckeyes, the Irish defense has yet to allow a point in the first quarter. Notre Dame’s defense forced turnovers in two of the three first quarters they’ve played in the playoffs: a fumble recovery in the Sugar Bowl and a Xavier Watts interception at home against Indiana.

Where the teams diverge is that the Notre Dame offense has scored just 7 points in the first quarter of their three playoff games combined. That lone touchdown came against Indiana on Jeremiyah Love’s 98-yard touchdown run.

Notre Dame’s opponents have received the ball first in all three games. Those first drives have combined for 13 plays, 35 yards, and one first down. It will be interesting to see the approach in this one if the Irish win the toss and defer yet again. Marcus Freeman has put faith in his defense against the Nittany Lions and Bulldogs. If he wins the toss, will he do the same against the high-powered Ohio State offense? It would be a hell of a sign of faith and trust in his defense, but at the same time, a strong case could be made for Notre Dame taking the ball and trying to assert its will on the Ohio State defense.

Whoever gets the ball first, Notre Dame has to weather the first-quarter storm to have a chance at survival. It could be a long night if Ohio State comes out firing on all cylinders and gets a couple of quick, easy scores. On the other hand, if the Notre Dame defense can contain Ohio State early, they are the kind of offense – thanks to their offensive coordinator – who could get impatient and get thrown off its game. When things are clicking, Chip Kelly is among the best. When they aren’t, however, his offenses can get shut down. Just look at Ohio State’s 10 points versus Michigan, 21 against Nebraska, and 20 against the same Penn State defense that Notre Dame just put 27 on in the Orange Bowl.

The worry for Notre Dame fans is that Al Golden’s strengths have been his adjustments and not always his initial game plans. Teams have had some early success on Notre Dame before Golden adjusts and shuts things down. That can’t happen on Monday night for Notre Dame or the Irish could find themselves in too big of a hole to dig out of. If they can force an early turnover, as they’ve already done twice this post-season, the Irish could knock Ohio State off its game, as Michigan did in their surprising upset of the Buckeyes just seven weeks ago.

A lot else has to go right for Notre Dame to end its 36-year championship drought, but if they don’t at least survive the initial surge from Ohio State, the rest might not matter.