The stakes couldn’t be higher as Notre Dame prepares to face Ohio State in tonight’s national championship showdown. For the Irish, it’s about more than just one game—it’s a chance to end a 36-year title drought and prove their resilience after a season filled with adversity. With Ohio State bringing a high-powered offense and the healthier roster, Notre Dame must rely on grit, strategy, and the intangibles that have carried them this far to pull off the upset. Can they? Let’s dig in.
What Worries Me
Ohio State getting out to a fast start
I wrote about this on Sunday, but the biggest key for Notre Dame tonight is not to let Ohio State get out to a fast start. When the Buckeyes come out of the gates firing, it is generally goodnight, sweetheart. They tend to press and struggle more offensively when they get off to slower starts. For Notre Dame to have a chance at ending its 36-year national championship drought tonight, the Irish defense has to weather the early storm from Ohio State.
It’s even more critical for the defense to withstand Ohio State’s initial push because the Irish offense isn’t known for starting fast and hasn’t all playoffs long. If the offense did start fast, it would be an enormous boost, but that’s been rare for the Irish offense.
Notre Dame not being able to get pressure with just the front four
The debate all week has been whether Notre Dame will continue to play as much man coverage as they have all year long against Ohio State’s elite receiving corps. Michigan played the most zone coverage they have all seasons against Ohio State, and it stymied the Buckeye offense in their upset win in Columbus. Notre Dame has to be true to itself and do what got them here – which is play man – but does have to be smart, and at a minimum, Al Golden needs to throw a lot of looks at Will Howard and mix in more zone than he has. He would be foolish not to. You can’t change who you are in one week, but you can’t ignore data.
My big concern with playing man coverage extensively will be if Notre Dame can’t get pressure with just its front four throughout the night. Notre Dame blitzes as much as anyone – and with Rylie Mills on the inside, they’ve needed to even more. Howard has 18 touchdowns and 9 interceptions when he is not blitzed but 15 touchdowns to just one interception when blitzed. If Notre Dame plays true to its MO all year, blitzes a lot, and leaves the corners in man coverage, that would play right into Howard and the high-powered Ohio State offense’s strengths.
Doesn’t Worry Me
Notre Dame winning the special teams game
When you are as big of an underdog as Notre Dame is in this game, you have to win in all of the margins to pull off the upset. One area where I feel good about Notre Dame coming into this showdown is in special teams, where Marty Biagi has been in his bag all year long. We haven’t seen him go to it in the playoffs other than the reverse kick return against Indiana, but I would be shocked if we didn’t see some form of trickeration from the Irish tonight.
Notre Dame’s special teams have been a strength in the playoffs – especially with Mitch Jeter finding his form again after his mid-season injury and being extremely clutch. If it comes down to a field goal tonight, Notre Dame fans should feel good with Jeter after what we’ve seen from him so far in the playoffs.
To win tonight, the special teams unit must make some impactful play to steal a possession or some points. It could be a long return, a fake punt that steals a possession, a blocked punt that gives the Irish offense a short field, or some other form of momentum-stealing play. If it is fake, we just have to hope the Irish are more successful at it than when Charlie Weis called for one in the 2006 Sugar Bowl. Wouldn’t a rugby-style run from James Rendel for a big first down be a sight tonight, though?
Notre Dame’s intangibles
Notre Dame has defied all of the odds in even getting to this game tonight. No one, myself included, gave this team a chance of making the playoffs, let alone the title game, after the loss to NIU. Even as the injuries mounted this season, this team never flinched after that loss. The injuries haven’t stopped in the playoffs, either, with Mills and Anthonie Knapp going down. Even with everything stacked against them tonight, though, I have no worries about the Irish coming out and being ready and focused. This team just has “it”.
Almost any other team would have folded in the Orange Bowl down two more offensive line starters, and its quarterback with its star running back banged up. This team rallied. Marcus Freeman has built a culture with this team where “next man in” isn’t just some cliche; it’s their way of life. Notre Dame’s team culture will be on display tonight on a national stage, and I’m not worried about it being rattled at all.
Notre Dame’s patchwork offensive line
Speaking of all those injuries, Notre Dame will start a new left tackle in the national championship after losing the guy who started all 15 games for them this season. That is not ideal. If you’re going to replace your LT in the Natty, though, you probably could do worse than inserting the previous starting LT, who only lost the job because of a pre-season injury that robbed him of his season. Charles Jagusah was believed to be the next in line of a series of Notre Dame All-American LTs before injuring his pec in training camp. He battled back, however, and has been practicing now for over a month. He got some action in the Orange Bowl at guard because that is where the Irish had him practicing for depth. Jagusah slides back out to LT tonight with Rocco Spindler gutting it out at RG. It won’t be his first career start, but it will be his first of the season.
Almost any other team, I’d be very worried, but this team has overcome injuries like this all year long and Jagusah has the pedigree to come in and play well. He was a mauler in the middle of the line against Penn State’s talented defensive front and might actually improve Notre Dame’s run blocking in the absence of Anthonie Knapp. Joe Rudolph has coached this offensive line well the last two years and has the unit ascending. They have a challenging task ahead of them tonight against Ohio State, but they’ve already faced two elite defensive lines in the last two games, and Indiana’s isn’t too shabby either.
Players to Watch
- Kris Mitchell – It’s been receiver by committee this season especially in the playoffs. Jordan Faison led the way against Indiana and Jayden Thomas got the TD. Beau Collins scored against Georgia, and Jayden Harrison had the long TD return. Jaden Greathouse had his breakout in the Orange Bowl. The only regular receiver left to make an impact is Mitchell.
- Byrce Young – He has been very quiet since his rough start to the Sugar Bowl, but if there was ever a game Notre Dame needed him to play like a game-wrecker, it’s tonight.
- Xavier Watts – We’ve heard about the dynamic safety duo of Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom all week. Well, Notre Dame has its own elite safety, too, and it feels like it’s time for Watts to get his hands on the football.
- Kynston Villiamu-Asa – He was rusty against Georgia and started to round out into form in the Orange Bowl. Further removed from his injury, KVA could be a difference-maker tonight.
- Mitchell Evans – Evans had a monster game against Ohio State last year in Notre Dame. He hasn’t been called on much in the playoffs and overall has had a disappointing season given the expectations, but he will be critical for Notre Dame tonight.
- Jeremiyah Love – He says he is 100%, but that might be a stretch. Even 80% of Jeremiyah Love is better than most running backs in the country. He hasn’t really had a chance to cook since the 98-yard run against Indiana. Notre Dame needs him to be a superhero tonight.
- Aneyas Williams – Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles is a great player, but his strength isn’t pass coverage. Look for Notre Dame to try to get Willimas matched up with him in space tonight.
- Riley Leonard – Suffice to say that Notre Dame needs Leonard to play the game of his life tonight.
Prediction Time
Everything is telling me that the pick is Ohio State. They unequivocally have the better and much healthier roster. The Buckeyes, unfortunately, decided to start playing up to their potential in the playoffs after dropping two games in the regular season, including the embarrassing home loss to Michigan as a 20.5-point favorite. But there is something different about this Notre Dame team compared to the ones who have gotten this far and failed to end the drought in the past. The 2012 team overcame some early injuries but didn’t have to face the adversity this one has and didn’t have to play the gauntlet this one has to get here.
For Notre Dame to win the following will need to happen 1) withstand the early onslaught 2) win the turnover margin 3) Riley Leonard balls out 4) control the lines of scrimmage and 5) create a momentum changer either on defense or special teams. It sounds like a lot, but that has been Notre Dame’s recipe all season. I could be naive with some blue and gold tinted glasses right now, but we didn’t get this far for me to pick against Notre Dame. Let’s have a night and exorcise some demons.
Notre Dame 31, Ohio State 30
ND 42 – OSU 32